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GauchoGreg said...
I have actually had some good discourse with him, and find him more honest than many. He has shown a willingness to listen and even be somewhat flexible in his positions. Not saying you are wrong, as you might have had totally different experiences with him, and it might just be how he and I have related on this board.
What is happiness? The feeling that power is growing, that resistance is overcome.--Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche
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GauchoGreg said...
I thought I already answered this with you. No, not mandatory, but they would sure be advantageous for most to have, making your medical costs much lower through tax incentive. The tax deduction, rather than going to your employers, in my system, would go to you, the patient within the HSA/Major Medical combination. I'm rather libertarian in this regard. People will have motivation to contribute and have such policies/accounts, but not forced to do so, and if they don't, they are stuck with what they get (a stripped down safety net clinics, etc.). However, others might propose the same system, but use the same arguments for Medicare to require you fund an HSA through your pay, but not for the simple process of breathing. At least in such a system, you actually do control your money, as it would never be confiscated by the government, and it would be part of commerce, rather than simply by breathing. I would prefer no mandate, however.
What is happiness? The feeling that power is growing, that resistance is overcome.--Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche
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GauchoGreg said...
Actually, it would be nothing like the current system, and those with high costs would not get screwed unless they are long-term high-medical need cases.
The big difference is that there would be a tremendous increase in market-oriented competition along with dramatic decreases in bureaucratic morasse. When a doctor charges a fee, it gets paid for directly by the patient. No submitting to insurance companies, who then fiddle around with it, eventually dis-allowing various parts, and then re-submitting, etc. No situation where you turn your decisions and payment over to some big bureacracy, with little to keep the patient from over-using the system, or lacking respect for the cost of services by not taking advantage of the things they are paying for, indirectly, and vaguely. The industry would be dramatically more appealing to participate in as a doctor, where your client is your patient, and you have more freedom out from under bureacracies determining what you can and can't do. As a result, I would predict more people going into medicine. I would even be fine with making more alternative medicines approved to use HSA money on, rather than the current limitations by insurance companies. I have said in the past, I would be willing to have some "tax" or fee placed on all of the major medical policies that is intended to help those with long-term needs, which would fit within the context of pooling risk.
What is happiness? The feeling that power is growing, that resistance is overcome.--Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche
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GauchoGreg said...
Long term needs folks, and in particular, those with pre-existing conditions with such long-term needs. No doubt about it. To be honest, I have not thoroughly hammered this element out, but the total number of people impacted is relatively small, and that's why I would be OK with some form of fee tacked on to all major medical policies to help cover such folks. I would still like for them to be covered by a private system, if possible, but it might have to be more of a public system. Like I said, though, the numbers would not be huge, with the biggest problems with our system covered by the HSAs and major medical.
By the way, the foundation, the first step, for my system is moving the deduction from the employer to the employee. That would immediately create more flexibility. I have no problem with individuals opting for more comprehensive policies if they like, and moving the deductible over to the patient/employee from the employer would provide that flexibility. You could also have pools created by any number of groups (professional, social, clubs, etc.) that might want to still go into bigger group plans, but having them directed and controlled by the patients/users, rather than employees. I just think, on a personal level, that it makes most sense to get people to be paying, out of pocket (or out of HSA) for most of your medical care.
What is happiness? The feeling that power is growing, that resistance is overcome.--Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche
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GauchoGreg said...
HSAs on their own remove risk-pooling. But that is where the major medical insurance component comes in. Major medical insurance policies, with high deductible, have extremely low premiums. These are true risk pooling, true INSURANCE policies. Pay for regular care, typical medicines, typical check-ups, minor procedures, etc. out of your HSA, which reduces the bad part of pooling, while retaining pooling for covering the risk of higher cost issues, in the true character of insurance/pooling.
“Close tax loopholes that allow some of the truly wealthy to avoid paying their fair share,” Reagan vowed.
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brdcstr1 said...
So yourbest response to Greg's questions is to cut and paste another article that's fraught with the word "might" throughout?
The left was previously holding up the CBO's projections as evidence of it's feasibility and affordability. Now that we have a 10 year projection instead of the previous six-year projection that produces far more unfavorable numbers... The left trots out scholars to discredit the CBO numbers.
"Or maybe they won't. As Ezra says, there's really no way to be certain. But if it's possible the Affordable Care Act will cost a lot more than we think, it's just as possible that it will cost a lot less."
Sounds like This Guy Is Willing to Roll the Dice on $1 + Trillion Gamble that he guessed right. Not exactly a prudent way of approaching a new business start up venture.
“Close tax loopholes that allow some of the truly wealthy to avoid paying their fair share,” Reagan vowed.
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swr22 said...
Employer-paid is kind of dumb. The ever-higher costs are reflected in lower wages. There are benefits to bigger firms over smaller ones. And changing jobs or being unemployed is problematic. There is no reason for it other than historical coincidence.
What is happiness? The feeling that power is growing, that resistance is overcome.--Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche
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GauchoGreg said...
So today we hear that the CBO's estimate of the cost for Obamacare, used to pass the law when they promised the cost would not exceed $1Trillion, has been doubled, among four fun stories about Obamacare which should lead any sane, critical thinking person to understand that the whole program has a snowball's chance in hell of ever being feasible. Here is the first story, (http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/cbo-obamacare-cost-176-trillion-over-10-yrs/425831):
<<
"President Obama's national health care law will cost $1.76 trillion over a decade, according to a new projection released today by the Congressional Budget Office, rather than the $940 billion forecast when it was signed into law.
Democrats employed many accounting tricks when they were pushing through the national health care legislation, the most egregious of which was to delay full implementation of the law until 2014, so it would appear cheaper under the CBO's standard ten-year budget window and, at least on paper, meet Obama's pledge that the legislation would cost "around $900 billion over 10 years." When the final CBO score came out before passage, critics noted that the true 10 year cost would be far higher than advertised once projections accounted for full implementation.
Today, the CBO released new projections from 2013 extending through 2022, and the results are as critics expected: the ten-year cost of the law's core provisions to expand health insurance coverage has now ballooned to $1.76 trillion. That's because we now have estimates for Obamacare's first nine years of full implementation, rather than the mere six when it was signed into law. Only next year will we get a true ten-year cost estimate, if the law isn't overturned by the Supreme Court or repealed by then. Given that in 2022, the last year available, the gross cost of the coverage expansions are $265 billion, we're likely looking at about $2 trillion over the first decade, or more than double what Obama advertised."
>>
******
OK, now, the fun part kicks in, with the second story. In an amazing, beautiful twisting of logic and obliteration of the principles of Obamacare, it will both cost more and have greater savings. "Why?", you ask. Well, because Obamacare is going to make people lose their private insurance coverage. "What?" you ask, "I thought it was going to make insurance more available to people?". Well, that would be the case if it really intended to do that, but instead, the reality is that Obamacare is not going to "earn" more because it will be reaping the rewards of more businesses and individuals dropping insurance and paying their fees. This fun logic is explained in this fun story (http://news.investors.com/article/604284/201203132014/cbo-obamacare-savings-rise-on-unemployment.htm):
<<
"ObamaCare has found a way to make unemployment pay. Higher forecasts for joblessness mean fewer tax breaks and higher fines on employers and individuals, the Congressional Budget Office forecast Tuesday, helping to boost the program's deficit savings by a further $48 billion.
Even more people will lose private insurance, CBO predicted, and more will be uninsured. That is the opposite of what the sweeping health law was supposed to achieve. But more people without insurance and less employer-provided coverage means lower taxpayer subsidies and more employer and individual fines.
ObamaCare's insurance coverage portions are expected to cost $51 billion more over 2012-2021 than the CBO estimated last year .
But the increase would be more than offset by a net $99 billion increase in various revenues.
On average, 3.8 million fewer people annually will have employer-based coverage than the CBO estimated last year. One million fewer people will get coverage via exchanges, while some 4.2 million more will be uninsured, annually.
This partially reflects CBO's higher unemployment forecasts.
With more people not working, more people will sign up for Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance, boosting those costs by $168 billion over the 10-year span.
But fewer people will buy insurance via exchanges, reducing premium subsidies by $97 billion. Meanwhile, the decline in employer-based coverage will cut small-employer tax credits by $20 billion.
That reduces the increased net coverage costs to $51 billion.
The projected rise in revenue is ironically largely due to the increase in the uninsured and the decline in employer-based coverage.
The government will fine individuals $45 billion — up from $34 billion — for failing to have insurance. Businesses are expected to pay $96 billion for not providing coverage, an increase of $15 billion.
Another $81 billion in higher net revenues comes largely from employees no longer getting tax-exempt health insurance but instead being paid more in taxable wages.
....."
>>
***
OK, so less people insured, less people on exchanges, more fines, less tax deductions. Sounds just like the arguments used to help pass Obamacare, right? What, that isn't what they promised?
Is there ONE DAMNED REASON why we should now believe that the current cost estimate of $1.76 Trillion is accurate? Where is the cost of the actual medical care for all these new people that don't have insurance going to be incurred. These stories don't talk about that. You can also bet your ass that the current estimates of people losing their current insurance coverage are grossly under-estimated.
Does anyone think this whole system sounds sustainable? Well, it does not end there . . . . (To Be Continued)
This post was edited by oldtrojan_93 on 3/15/2012 at 7:31 AM
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scinsc5 said...
I not sure dumb is the right word and I wouldn't call it coincidence. It's based on history and law. I agree it seems quaint. I would guess without it there would be an even bigger (maybe much) problem with uninsured. It's kind of like a minimum wage in that it's artificial. I do like gregs theory of doctors getting paid more directly.
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swr22 said...
Ok. Take me through an example. Low income woman with diabetes. Needs lots of hospital trips for diagnosis, work out which meds won't interfere with other meds etc. Then she gets an ear infection. She could go again to the doctor but her allowance is tapped out. Couldn't that lead to a burst eardrum and higher costs incurred at the catastrophic level? Do you see what I am getting at? Isn't there a possibility that, especially low-income folks, will have to pay higher costs because of the environmental factors that lead to their illness and might be worried about exceeding their ability to afford doctors visits leading to higher, more serious costs due to underaccess at the primary level?
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GauchoGreg said...
Absolutely. I have never claimed to have it all figured out. There are elements/considerations that still need work. But I believe these are absolutely exceptions to the norm. And while they are exceptions, we certainly must make an effort to find a solution to them. Part of the solution, as I have said, is to have some form of safety net system, possibly clinics staffed by medical/nursing students and recent grads, as interns, obviously, along with seasoned professionals. The point being have relatively stripped-down clinics, not claiming to the be the best service, but certainly qualified and competent, to handle regular medical care for those not able to cover their own costs. Whether that be someone not at all able to pay for their needs on a long-term basis, or those that find themselves in a situation like you postulate. They may not have as nice of waiting rooms, they may have to wait in the reception room longer, and they may not have as much variety. But they would have service, and those clinics could refer out to private sector care for those services they do not cover.
The big point that sometimes gets forgotten when we are talking abou this stuff is that more than 80% of us can and would handle the vast majority of our regular care through a system of HSAs and Major medical insurance, and by doing so, I truly believe the vast majority of our medical care costs would drop dramatically (particularly when adding in tort reform). So, those things that we currently see truly outrageous costs would also come down, which would make dealing with these issues even easier than they look right now.
“Close tax loopholes that allow some of the truly wealthy to avoid paying their fair share,” Reagan vowed.
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GauchoGreg said...
Absolutely.
swr22 said... Put people on a wage!
How would you structure the wages? Would they all be flat? Adjusted by cost of living in the various markets? Adjusted by education level, or amount of on-going continuing ed? Would the wage go up or down by some measure of successes or patient approval/demand? Anything to encourage the health care providers to provide better service, to be more efficient, or to go the extra-mile for a patient? Impacted by poor record or low approval?
Also, how would you handle medications and the costs of divices/scans, tests, etc.?
“Close tax loopholes that allow some of the truly wealthy to avoid paying their fair share,” Reagan vowed.
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