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March Jobs Report Prediction Thread

  • The official March Jobs Report will be released tomorrow morning.

    I predict that we will finally see a +300,000 number in that report.

    Anyone else have a prediction or guess?

    cstory80

  • cstory80 said...

    The official March Jobs Report will be released tomorrow morning.

    I predict that we will finally see a +300,000 number in that report.

    Anyone else have a prediction or guess?

    "The unemployment rate drops to 8.2% for one simple reason: the number of people not in the labor force is back to all time highs: 87,897,000."

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nfp-big-miss-120k-expectations-205k-unemployment-82

    brdcstr1

  • Fuck me. I was only off by more than 180,000+.

    :-(

    cstory80

  • cstory80 said...

    Fuck me. I was only off by more than 180,000+.

    :-(

    Not quite what would be hoped for, huh.

    GauchoGreg

  • cstory80 said...

    Fuck me. I was only off by more than 180,000+.

    :-(

    disappointing, but we are still on a good run this year.

    Rosebowl91

  • Yeah, we're having a nice run, but that number really was a disappointment. Hopefully it is just a 1 month drop off.

    Without checking, I think this makes 25 straight months of private sector job growth.

    cstory80

  • I really wish I knew one person here in Arizona that was having a good year - hell, a good quarter - and there's a lot of affluence here, especially in North Scottsdale and PV.

    Join the fight for YOUR liberty! http://www.pandaunite.org/

    SpiritofTroy74

  • Number not participating in the work force at all time high - nearly 88,000,000

    New jobs just barely surpassed the number of births/deaths calculation at plus 90K, leaving nearly a zero sum gain.

    NFP Big Miss: 120K, Expectations 205K, Unemployment 8.2%, "Not In Labor Force" At New All Time High | ZeroHedge

    March NFP big miss at just 120K. Unemployment rate declines from 8.3% to 8.2%. Futures slide, for at least a few minutes before the NEW QE TM rumor starts spreading. The household survey actually posted a decline in March from 142,065 to 142,034. Considering Birth Death added 90K to the NSA number, the actual number was almost unchanged. And as always, as we predicted when Goldman hiked its NFP forecast yesterday from 175K to 200K saying s +250,000 forecast was just 100% off... as usual.The unemployment rate drops to 8.2% for one simple reason: the number of people not in the labor force is back to all time highs: 87,897,000.Birth Death:

    www.zerohedge.com

    Low5Point

  • SpiritofTroy74 said...

    I really wish I knew one person here in Arizona that was having a good year - hell, a good quarter - and there's a lot of affluence here, especially in North Scottsdale and PV.

    The main reason I was so optimistic about March is that my company, my old main client, and my new main client had huge hiring months in March. I was hoping that would be indicative of a great month, across the board. Unfortunately, it ws not.

    cstory80

  • Also... I don't know why everyone gets so giddy about just positive numbers.

    What KIND of jobs are part of these creations. Doesn't do shit if most new job creations are part time/ temp works that pay horrendous wages.

    Ray4SC ●

  • Ray4SC said...

    Also... I don't know why everyone gets so giddy about just positive numbers.

    What KIND of jobs are part of these creations. Doesn't do shit if most new job creations are part time/ temp works that pay horrendous wages.

    a) it does matter for the person getting a job.

    b) past reports have shown them to be decent jobs including big gains in manufacturing.

    Rosebowl91

  • Rosebowl91 said...

    a) it does matter for the person getting a job.

    b) past reports have shown them to be decent jobs including big gains in manufacturing.

    What it also means is that a person is making money that will give them purchasing power, while also making it less likely that person will be receiving government assistance.

    Another reason to get excited about positive job growth numbers is that I remember where we were in late 2008 and early 2009. I remember remember reading month job reports that stated we were losing 750,000 jobs a month.

    cstory80

  • Ray4SC said...

    Also... I don't know why everyone gets so giddy about just positive numbers.

    What KIND of jobs are part of these creations. Doesn't do shit if most new job creations are part time/ temp works that pay horrendous wages.

    Real facts, not wishful thinking. Most recent details are available from the "good" months of Jan and Feb. The MAJORITY of jobs created in Feb (160K) were low paying or part-time jobs. Same for January. These are being referred to as "Permanent Temp Jobs"

    The Part-Time Economy (Redux) | ZeroHedge

    While not shocking to most, the jump in temporary workers that we cited earlier is perhaps the biggest indicator of job of incremental jobs is now negative, which means that Obama, or whichever administration, can easily represent to be growing jobs, and declining the unemployment rate by whatever gimmick necessary. Yet these very jobs are now generating far less in so very critical tax revenue for the US treasury, and continue to declining steadily in quality.Finally, two more charts, the first showing the NSA number of Part-Time jobs from the Household Survey. At 28,096,000 this number is just shy of the all time high of 28,106,000, and represents 19.4% of total employment.

    www.zerohedge.com

    Low5Point

  • Ray4SC said...

    Also... I don't know why everyone gets so giddy about just positive numbers.

    What KIND of jobs are part of these creations. Doesn't do shit if most new job creations are part time/ temp works that pay horrendous wages.

    Also...another indicator is the "increase" of payroll dollars in comparison to number of people working.

    The most recent date shows a pathetic increase of 0.1%

    Low5Point

  • Rosebowl91 said...

    disappointing, but we are still on a good run this year.

    I just got back from 2 large conventions in Las Vegas. Very busy. Some were saying best show in 8-10 years. So there is spending going on out there and businesses buying inventory.

    I saw it as a big positive.

    signature image

    "...an economy hampered by restrictive tax rates will never produce enough jobs or enough profits" JFK

    sec13graphics

  • Couple of snippets:

    Sony to Cut Estimated 10,000 Jobs
    Updated April 9, 2012, 6:05 a.m. ET
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303772904577333162194832288.html

    Yahoo Announces Layoffs: 2,000 Jobs Cut
    04/ 4/12 06:45 PM ET
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/04/yahoo-layoffs-2000-jobs-cut_n_1402470.html

    Big Layoffs For J.C. Penney, PPG Industries
    April 6, 2012 10:50 AM EDT
    http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/324940/20120406/big-lay-offs-j-c-penney-ppg.htm

    450 to 500 layoffs announced for division at Lockheed Martin
    Updated: 4/08 12:40 am
    http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/story/450-to-500-layoffs-announced-for-division-at/kIOqtLz_tkmFoBtoEybYJg.cspx

    Oprah Winfrey characterizes OWN job layoffs as ‘rightsizing’
    April 7, 2012
    http://www.examiner.com/entertainment-industry-in-national/oprah-winfrey-characterizes-own-job-layoffs-as-rightsizing

    Ford to Layoff 1,200 Workers During Claycomo Retooling
    Posted on: 7:50 am, April 2, 2012
    http://fox4kc.com/2012/04/02/ford-to-layoff-1200-workers-during-claycomo-retooling/

    Dow Chemical to cut jobs
    April 3, 2012
    http://www.freep.com/article/20120403/BUSINESS01/204030337/Dow-Chemical-to-cut-jobs?odyssey=mod

    Whatever Fed treasury bubble we're in right now... that is probably as good as it gets before the inevitable European debt bust. A lot of systematic risk are still in play.

    Ray4SC ●

  • Liberals need to accept the fact that you don't get obamacare, gov subsidized spending/control over the factors of productivity, and corresponding taxe increases/entitlements AND job growth. You do NOT get security for the weak, incompetant, and lazy AND an increase to quality of life/total factor productivity.

    No one that actually makes hiring/firing decisions (i.e. intelligent people who understand business/finance/economics) is fooled at all by Obama's rhetoric. Yes, we're seeing a little positive momentum, but things got so bad we're just starting to stabilize at the new normal of today, which is being driven by the economic projections of 5, 10, and 20 years fro now. Let's just keep it real - Obama is a neo-anticolonialist and in his heart of hearts favors euro-style socialism. People know that. As long as he's in office consumer sentiment is going to be very negative and we'll be in a slowly improving, but generally depressed, quagmire for another 4 years if he is elected (with the one hope that the house and senate swing to the GOP and force Obama to pull a Bill Clinton - please note that exception because it's an extremely relevant caveat). The democrats that I know (what few there are) that voted for Obama last year that are all in business have almost universally swung their vote over to Romney. Why? Because they know what I know - Obama is bad for business and without business the liberals can't buy the votes of their primary voting block (where buy = gov entitlement/union benefits).

    Just my 2 cents.

    Cry Havoc; and let slip the dogs of war!

    phear_SC

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