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scmarine84 ●
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GauchoGreg said...
I'm saying, "my vote WILL matter by being part of the popular support for reversing the policy of Barak Obama, for supporting the reforms I support for health care, for permanent tax rates, etc."
That is just as valid as your saying, "I know my vote won't have any direct impact on the election, but I think it will cause future influence".
Actually, I would contend there is much more support for my position. I can at least reference the ability of Ronald Reagan to use an electoral AND popular vote mandate to push his policy.
Reality is reality. Gary Johnson is not electable. You have admitted it. Some things in the world are just not fair. It does no good to whine about it, and it certainly does no good to ignore the fact.
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scmarine84 said...
I believe that, just like with the religious right when they threatened McCain, and later Dubya, there is a large element of the Tea Party that will sit on their hands in order to prove their point.
Especially if they think it will prove their point and advance their position down the road.
The Tea Party is aching to be relevant on a truly national scale; right now, no matter who they might want to characterize it otherwise, their impact is at MOST regional. But if they can say that they cost Romney an election, that sets them up as a truly national power down the road.
And I have absolutely no doubt that there is a sizable segment of those who identify themselves as Tea Partyers will do exactly that.
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trojans2015 said...
I agree that we should acknowledge reality. Gary Johnson won't win. And Mitt Romney is never going to be the True Conservative you wish he was. If he turns out to prove me wrong, I'll give you credit Greg. But I'm pretty certain that if he wins, you'll be the one having to defend your vote for the next four years.
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GauchoGreg said...
I don't need Romney to be a great Conservative. I want him to steer us back in a more Conservative direction than we currently are. I own a business, and work with a wide variety of business people every day. I see the absolutely horrible impact from Obama/Reid/Pelosi/Frank/Dodd/et al, with an unbelievable destruction of wealth, business, employment, home values, etc. It HAS to be stopped, and not just through more "hope & change", dreaming that voting for Gary Johnson will somehow lead to change decades down the road. You don't believe there is the potential for a mandate. I do. I see Romney in MUCH better shape than Reagan was in as of October 1980, and I see all the conditions coming together for dramatic disappointment in Obama and all that could come along with that as far as the election. I would LOVE to see Romney coming in and being Conservative, and I honestly believe the chances of him being more Conservative than you are worried about are better than the converse.
But weighing the pros and cons, I don't even see how it is a question as to where our votes are best placed. On one side, an outpouring of popular support can actually influence him in the right direction, beyond even just getting him elected.
A vote for Johnson, or not voting at all, IMO, results in ZERO impact, now or in the future.
Better to vote for Romney now, be active in TEA Party or Libertarian movement, promote future candidates like Ron Paul within the GOP, etc..
This post was edited by trojans2015 on 8/8/2012 at 6:10 PM
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trojans2015 said...
I'd consider voting for Romney if I thought he would move the country in a conservative (at least fiscally) direction. Last I checked, more spending, more debt, and more government power isn't conservative. Not to mention further erosion of civil liberties, a high likelihood of a war with Iran, etc.
No offense Greg, but you are being played. These guys count on guys like you every election cycle to say to yourselves "dang, this guy's not that great, and I wish we could do better, but OMG WE HAVE TO STOP THE OTHER GUY!" And that's why nothing ever gets changed. The two parties have zero incentive to actually practice what they preach, because as long as the convince their base (and a majority of moderates) that the other guy is worse, they'll win and keep their power.
A vote for Romney does have an impact (in as much as a single vote can have) in validating that the status quo is acceptable and we will continue to elect politicians running on empty promises. I cannot accept that. I also never said that I was voting for Johnson primarily because it will send a message. As I've said more than once already, the main reason I'm voting for Johnson is because he is the best candidate running. It's that simple.
And why can't I not vote for Romney now, and then continue to work to get libertarian Republicans like the Pauls elected?
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GauchoGreg said...
You are making a big assumption. That Romney will not only not do what he is campaigning on, but actually spending more than Obama, if you think he will not be better for us than Obama. I don't believe that is the case, I do not believe I'm being played.
First of all, Romney has already been a huge success in life. He has been a success in business, made himself EXTREMELY rich, been a success as an executive, etc. He does not need to win POTUS to be a success, he is already one. Secondly, he understands a balance sheet. He has actually seen bad business models, and corrected them. You are making a big assumption that he can't understand the American balance sheet, that he won't make corrective changes. Being POTUS is VERY much different than being the Gov of Massachusetts. As Governor, he had VERY little ability to control spending:
"The Democrats had veto-proof majorities in both chambers and rewrote Romney’s budget, as they have with all governors’ budgets, to what they wanted," said Fred Bayles, director of the Boston University Statehouse Program. "Romney’s attempt at vetoing or adding language to the final document were all blocked, with the exception of a few vetoes he issued toward the end of his term when the Legislature was away."
Fact of the matter, Romney was able to do some good in Massachusetts, and doing SOME good is a relatively significant victory in that state.
But you have to jump to the conclusion that not only is Romney lying now about what he wants to do, but that he will break promises, and will show that he learned nothing in his life in the private sector. I don't see that all coming true. I do not think I will be regretting my vote. But regardless, at least I know how bad Obama is, and that it would be more shocking than if pigs started flying out of my ass if Romney ended up being worse for our nation than Barak Obama.
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trojans2015 said...
I don't know if Romney will spend more than Obama, though it's definitely possible considering 1) Romney wants to keep military spending at a mandatory minimum percentage of GDP 2) Romney is more likely to start a costly war with Iran (though it's by no means impossible or unlikely under Obama) 3) Romney has flat out stated he does not want to cut spending and even the most radical budget he's endorsed (the Ryan one) still substantially increases future spending and doesn't balance the budget for decades, even with optimistic growth scenarios and 4) If history tells us anything, Republicans tend to care more about being fiscally conservative when the president is a Democrat.
Once again, being a good businessman means jack shit when it comes to politics. I wouldn't vote for Warren Buffet even if he is one of the richest guys in the world. Donald Trump has been a successful (at times) businessman for God's sake! I never said Romney wasn't successful so I don't get your point.
Also, the mere fact that Romney got elected in Massachusetts is evidence that he probably is not a friend of liberty and small government. I don't care how you spin that
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GauchoGreg said...
God, not this shit again.
The TEA Party power and influence is in the platform (primarily fiscal) and those that support it, and at this point, the power is in the intense desire to end the influence of Barak Obama, That is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYY more of a motivation and influence than any kind of gay marriage, or other social issue, or the idea we want to revert the government to its influence of the 19th Century (and nothing less). The TEA party voters will be out to vote out Obama because they want an end to Obamacare, they do not want Cap & Trade, they want to limit immigration (specifically, illegal immigration), they want more conservative judiciary, and they want to limit the influence of organized labor in the public sector. They/we will vote for Romney on that basis, and they/we will not be sitting on our hands because we are unsure Romney will be soft on gay marriage, or whatever you seem to be convinced the TEA Party is obsessed with.
scmarine84 ●
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scmarine84 said...
Hold up there Spartacus.
So you're saying that there's not a segment of the Tea Party who are also part of the religious right? And that there's not a segment of those who identify themselves as Tea Party adherents who aren't making at the least the implicit threat that if Romney doesn't move further to the right, they're going to................what?
No matter how much you want to deny it, there is a group of people who call themselves Tea Partyers who are "urging" Romney to move farther to the right. Are you saying that they're not making an implicit threat in their "urging"?
Because if they aren't then what would prevent Romney from saying, "Fuck you. I'm going to move to the center to give me a better chance of winning the election, because you're going to vote for me no matter what."
He OBVIOUSLY doesn't feel that way; if he were sure that your precious Tea Partyers were going to vote for him no matter what, why wouldn't he be pandering to the center right now in order to garner the REAL votes that are going to get him elected, since you are so sure your fellow adherents would do no such thing as sit on their hands?
Romney is feeling pressure from somewhere on the right. Maybe it's his imagination; I seriously doubt that.
I know you like to think that your brethren are true patriots with only the purest of motives, but that, frankly, is naive and self-serving. Politics is about power, and it's about balancing short-term losses against long-term gains. To think that Romney is sucking up to the right because he is a true conservative flies against everything that his record shows; he's doing it because he's afraid that those hardcore right folks aren't going to vote for him otherwise.
I would say it's a well-grounded fear.
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GauchoGreg said...
1) I strongly dissagree with the position we could not cut from the military. I believe EVERY department can and should have cuts, even if some are hardly more than symbolic. It is fairly critical, IMO, that there are no sacred cows, that we instill the perspective that government is wasteful, PERIOD, and that we can always find ways to cut, and not hold our pet programs as above the fray. So, here is a place where TEA Party type pressure can be applied to President Romney.
2) Very debatable. Speaking a tough game can actually be more likely to prevent the game than ignoring it. I don't think Romney will jump into a war, willy-nilly.
3) Actually, that is totally untrue (that Romney has stated he does not want to cut spending). That was a comment stated that he did not want to DRAMATICALLY cut spending IMMEDIATELY. The qualifyers of dramatic and immediate are essential to incorporate into the discussion. By that, he could still actually make cuts, not just baseline cuts, but just not "dramatic". And even if he did not IMMEDIATELY, he certainly did not rule out cuts after the "immediate" period. Once again, let's push the TEA Party into action on this. But, I would not anticipate the kind of spending Obama has been up to., no matter what.
4) History can be looked at in multiple ways. Were spending increases due to wars, due to legislatures of the other party, due to the POTUS's policy preferences?
Yep, Romney got elected in Massachusetts. So? So he has the ability to appeal to the other side? Yes, he does. Look no further than Chris. Reagan also appealed to many Democrats. Is some of Reagan's profile almost mythical? Yep. But there is a reason someone gains that kind of respect. He was a great leader, and he did achieve a lot.
Anyway, I can't fathom how anyone could think pissing a vote away for Gary Johnson will do an ounce of good. He will not win. No one (not Democrats or Republicans) will care or change future policy due to the vote. Meanwhile, voting for Romney has the real potential for positive influence in the election results, AND for future policy influence. But, hey, sounds you are convinced otherwise.
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GauchoGreg said...
Nope, that's not what I said. The Religious right already have a home in the mainstream GOP. They don't need the TEA Party. But some religious right will ALSO like what the TEA Party has as a platform, and they are not content with the GOP on fiscal issues. So, they will support the TEA Party, as well. But the TEA Party is founded on totally different issues than those of the social side of the Religious Right. The TEA Party will attract people from a wide range of background, but holding the TEA Party as the guilty party for your dislike of the Religious right is inappropriate. Those Religious Right folks would be pushing Romney on the social issues with or without the TEA Party.
And if you think Romney is pandering to the right more than the anything else, I beg to differ. I believe he is trying to secure the middle more than anything right now, and I believe he will be very quiet on issues like gay marriage, like contraception/abortion, etc. He may present his positions, but he is going to be campaigning on the economy, on Obamacare, and not much else.
I have been to a TEA Party rally, and I know a bunch of folks just like me who support the platform. We are hardly the Religious Right variety, and care very little about that in this upcoming election. I believe we are MUCH more characteristic of the general TEA party populace than any few politicians who are pushing Romney toward anything.
scmarine84 ●
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scmarine84 said...
The problem is that anyone can identify themselves as a Tea Partyer, and as far as I've seen, there isn't any way for those of you who identify themselves as such to vet who claims it.
As much as you want to dissociate what you view as the purists of the Tea Party movement from those who aren't "true" Tea Partyers (and I understand why you would want to), guess what? If someone says they're Tea Party, the perception is the reality, no matter how much you and others might want to protest otherwise.
In short, until you are elected as Grand Poobah of Membership, the Tea Party dog is going to have a whole bunch of fleas. You can blame the media for that, but when someone wearing a tinfoil hat says, "I'm with the Tea Party and I want to see Obama's birth certificate because he's going to turn us into Muslims", do you really expect them to say, "Okay, but are you REALLY a member of the Tea Party? Let me see your membership card."
If someone says, "I'm a Tea Partyer, and I want Romney to move to the right," guess what? Whether or not you agree, he's a Tea Partyer. And there have been, and are now, people who are saying that, which you know or we wouldn't be having this conversation.
But you're right that the religious right have a home in the mainstream GOP. Which is why and how Barack Obama got elected. Religious zealotry makes a whole lot of people more nervous than secure; as many people are turned off by that aspect of the Republican party as like it, and it's those who are in the middle who moved over to give Obama a chance because of what they perceived as the strident tone of the Republican Party.
I'm not saying that he is pandering to the right............yet. But if he were truly confident that there wasn't going to be a whole segment of voters who, out of spite, would sit on their hands, he would be doing a lot more than "being quiet" on the social issues that are more likely to gain him votes from the middle. The fact that he's not is due to SOMETHING; I don't think he's overly bright, but I do think he wouldn't be afraid of losing votes for no reason.
Seriously, if he were sure that voters on the right, be they Tea Partyers or religious right, of which BOTH groups should prefer him no matter what his policies they might disagree with, weren't going to sit this one out, why wouldn't he be shouting from the rooftops whatever message will resonate with the people who are going to get him elected, in the center?
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trojans2015 said...
1) I doubt this happens. Even a lot of Tea Partiers view the military as a sacred cow 2) I'm not saying it's a 100% certainty, just more likely 3) Come on Gaucho. Do you honestly think Mitt Romney will even propose a budget that actually reduces expenditures? I'm not talking about phony Washington "cuts" 4) True or false: Congressional Republicans were more fiscally conservative under Clinton and Obama than they were under Bush?
You can't fathom "wasting" a vote on Johnson, and I can't fathom voting for such a terrible candidate as Mitt Romney. Ignore Johnson for the moment. I would stay home before I voted for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama
This post was edited by GauchoGreg on 8/8/2012 at 7:54 PM
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scmarine84 said...
The problem is that anyone can identify themselves as a Tea Partyer, and as far as I've seen, there isn't any way for those of you who identify themselves as such to vet who claims it.
As much as you want to dissociate what you view as the purists of the Tea Party movement from those who aren't "true" Tea Partyers (and I understand why you would want to), guess what? If someone says they're Tea Party, the perception is the reality, no matter how much you and others might want to protest otherwise.
In short, until you are elected as Grand Poobah of Membership, the Tea Party dog is going to have a whole bunch of fleas. You can blame the media for that, but when someone wearing a tinfoil hat says, "I'm with the Tea Party and I want to see Obama's birth certificate because he's going to turn us into Muslims", do you really expect them to say, "Okay, but are you REALLY a member of the Tea Party? Let me see your membership card."
If someone says, "I'm a Tea Partyer, and I want Romney to move to the right," guess what? Whether or not you agree, he's a Tea Partyer. And there have been, and are now, people who are saying that, which you know or we wouldn't be having this conversation.
But you're right that the religious right have a home in the mainstream GOP. Which is why and how Barack Obama got elected. Religious zealotry makes a whole lot of people more nervous than secure; as many people are turned off by that aspect of the Republican party as like it, and it's those who are in the middle who moved over to give Obama a chance because of what they perceived as the strident tone of the Republican Party.
I'm not saying that he is pandering to the right............yet. But if he were truly confident that there wasn't going to be a whole segment of voters who, out of spite, would sit on their hands, he would be doing a lot more than "being quiet" on the social issues that are more likely to gain him votes from the middle. The fact that he's not is due to SOMETHING; I don't think he's overly bright, but I do think he wouldn't be afraid of losing votes for no reason.
Seriously, if he were sure that voters on the right, be they Tea Partyers or religious right, of which BOTH groups should prefer him no matter what his policies they might disagree with, weren't going to sit this one out, why wouldn't he be shouting from the rooftops whatever message will resonate with the people who are going to get him elected, in the center?
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GauchoGreg said...
1) Unfortunately, I agree with you, UNLESS forced into it by reality, and maybe even some good influence by the Dems. 2) No way to know, but I would prefer that we talk a tougher game . . . I believe it will have much more potential to force Iran to back down and hold off the Israelis. 3) Not sure. If teaming up with Paul Ryan, then I believe there is potential there for us. Paul Ryan is not perfect, either, but who in a position of significance has proposed a more brave plan than him. I would actually hope for a plan more consistent with the Mack Penny plan. Regardless, there is at least potential here, and as I said, that quote you presented was not accurate. As I said, at least Romney has some understanding of balance sheets, and came from a world where you actually can't just keep spending more money than you have, that waste is bad. So, YES, I truly believe he is capable of making true cuts, not just baseline cuts. But more importantly, I think he is MUCH more likely to spend less than Obama in a second term, where he does not have to worry about re-election. And possibly MOST important, I truly believe he would sign off on responsible Congressional budgets and spending cuts - something we won't see with Obama as POTUS. 4) Congressional Republicans were a disaster under Bush. They seriously lost there way. Hence, the TEA Party came into being, and they have led to the shitcanning of some of the worst of the lot, and put the FEAR in others.
If you and enough others stay home, we will have a 2nd term of Barak Obama, a term where he has NO CONSIDERATION for the will of the people, for anything remotely reflecting fiscal responsibility or respect for the Constitution or free market capitalism. That we ABSOLUTELY KNOW. Can you say the same about your concern over Romney?
This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by trojans2015 on 8/8/2012 at 8:21 PM
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GauchoGreg said...
The TEA Party platform, as I posted before, promotes diversity and local influence, and a grass-roots situation with almost no control. There is no registry of TEA Party members. My issue with you is you seem to have bought into the idea that the TEA Party is a true party, that they are some ultra-right wing (specifically on social issues) band of people akin to the Christian Coalition or whatever. Not the case. More akin to folks that mobilize due to their belief in the platform, and that's why we have not seen as much of the TEA Party since the 2010 mid-terms, other than around the Walker Regal election and a few GOP primaries.
There is no real hierarchy. Anyone can, as you say, support the TEA Party. But when they do so, they are supporting the platform. So, you could very easily have Nazis, tree-huggers, pro-lifers, pro-choicers, gays, anti-gays, etc. etc. etc. as TEA Party supporters. Kinda like you could have a wide variety of people who support a strong national defense, or any number of other issues. Because you may have some groups who support the platform that may be otherwise undesirable does not mean the platform or majority of supporters are bad or worthy, IN ANY WAY, of your criticism, as you have given it.
scmarine84 ●
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scmarine84 said...
Uh, really? Is the Tea Party so desperate that they will accept anyone who agrees with part, or all of what they espouse?
If the more vocal members of the Tea Party are also identifying themselves as religious right, then every Tea Party member is going to get painted with that brush.
Whether it's fair or not is one of those ridiculous things that have no bearing on the reality. It just IS the reality; fair has nothing to do with it.
And unfortunately for you, those more vocal members are drowning out the voices of the more moderate members like you. Again, you can blame the "media" all you want, but unless and until you more moderate members do more to muzzle the Tinfoil Brigade segment of the movement, you're going to be painted with that brush.
Unfortunately, it is an open question about how many true moderates are in the Tea Party to begin with. Again, while I agree in principle with the principles, everything I've heard about the methods to achieve those principles leads me to believe that as a whole, y'all are smoking crack.
I will continue to say that no matter how much y'all scream, we are NOT going back to some mythical place reminiscent of the early 19th century.
This post was edited by GauchoGreg on 8/8/2012 at 8:54 PM
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GauchoGreg said...
There is no "Party" in TEA Party to be desperate. THAT is the point you seem to be missing. THAT is what I was implying when I said there would be a dramatic mix of people that support the TEA Party. Just as identifying as Pro-Military will include a wide range from veterans and families of veterans, to hyper-patriots, to hawks, to full-blown gun nuts, to skinheads, to farm kids looking to get away from home, to guys looking to pad their resume for future politics, etc. etc. etc.
Since the TEA Party is nothing more than a platform and encouragement for grass-roots mobilization, how the hell do you propose they keep from having Religious Right, or racists, or whatever else from claiming to be TEA Party supporters?
This scenario has its good and bad points. The good is that it is truly more open to a wide range of folks. It is not as likely to be taken over by any one group. But, if people don't think critically, they can be misunderstood, as you are doing. The Left and Dems are trying to model the TEA Party in a way to undermine it's effectiveness, and quite frankly, you are buying right into it. That is so damned typical of the Left . . . to not actually deal with the debate, but rather to demonize the messager. Politics of personal destruction, etc.
Rather than having to change the name of the group or movement as soon as it gets too effective, and the Left/Media start their effort to undermine the group, can't we toughen up, think critically, and actually call bullshit on it?
scmarine84 ●
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scmarine84 said...
Dude, I'm not missing a damn thing.
I DIDN'T NAME IT THE TEA PARTY.
You and those who call themselve that self-identify as Tea PARTY members.
What you're trying to do now is go back and reinvent the parameters of the discussion, and you're trying to blame "the media" for putting you in bed with all the whackos that have latched on.
But THEY DIDN'T CALL YOU THE TEA PARTY. YOU DID. It was a big deal for y'all to identify yourselves as such, and make a huge thing about what "patriots" you were, as if anyone who doesn't sign on isn't a patriot.
So now you're stuck with the weirdos, whackos and freaks that have latched on. Don't cry that it's the media that did it.
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swr22 said...
I gave TM a +1 for this as this, I feel, is the crucial point. Now I know I am not a libertarian or, for that matter, a conservative so feel free to take my post with a pinch of salt if you wish. The left, traditionally, have had a similar problem in Britain with the old Edwardian left coalition being split between two center-left parties (at least until recently....). In 2005, when the Iraq war loomed large, anti-war voters had a galling choice: vote for Blair who helped give cover for the biggest foreign policy disaster of the 21st century and led to the death of hundreds of thousands or let Michael Howard's rather nasty Tory party in. There were various vote-swapping websites where Labour voters would vote Lib Dem where they were ahead in exchange for Lib Dem voters doing the same.
If I lived in Oregon and I was a libertarian, I would vote for Johnson. Firstly, it doesn't matter actually what Johnson believes and proposes. As far as anyone is going to interpret a vote it is for lower spending and less social conservatism. If a GOP candidate wants to run statewide in Oregon than that 4-5% of the vote sends a message. If similar numbers vote libertarian in states that won't affect the result, I think it helps clarify a mandate for a President Romney rather than muddying it. It says that a plurality of people voted GOP and even more voted for its libertarian inclinations. It's not as if a libertarian vote runs counter to a mandate for all the things on which you all seem somewhat to agree (even if I don't). Now, if you are socially conservative then voting GOP rather than libertarian seems to make much more sense.
Just my two cents.
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GauchoGreg said...
Sorry, but the reality of the world is that people totally ignore the votes cast for Anderson, Perot, et al. All they know and care about is what the main candidates received. Right or wrong. I'm not going to fight reality, but rather accept it and make my influence the best possible. In this case, my influence is best in continuing to support and promote Conservative policy, through voting for the more Conservative person in primaries and general elections, through support for grass roots efforts such as the TEA Party, and through expressing my principles to those who might actually be open to hearing them.
The bigger the government, the smaller the citizen - Dennis Prager
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Does Romney Need to Move to the Center?