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The bad news for conservatives keeps coming.
We're within striking distance of the all-time highs for the Dow and S&P 500.
Stocks moved mostly higher by Tuesday afternoon, as investors weighed good housing data against poor consumer confidence numbers.
This post was edited by cstory80 15 months ago
Geez. I work in that industry and do not care nearly as much about the record as you do.
Most of my excitement on the issue stems from what I read in late 2008 through 2009 about the future of the markets. It's been a fun time watching us climb back to where were before the great recession hit.
One that happened a few years back was 1/2 gal ice cream became 1.75 qts. They look the same but they are different sizes.
Now sodas have a 1.5 liter replacing the 2 liter so that their price point can stay below $1.
Can veggies, cake mix, soap detergent, etc. have all taken the content back but tried to maintain the same size.
Restaurants do it with smaller plates. T-shirts can range from 5.1 oz to 6.1 oz and look the same to the consumer. Yet they can be as much a .50 cheaper at cost. Heck, a big trend came in a few years back with the lightweight shirts. The mills loved it. They had a new category that was popular that they could charge more for even though the raw cost was cheaper.
Its all over the place.
"...an economy hampered by restrictive tax rates will never produce enough jobs or enough profits" JFK
I remember the nonsense. The people spewing it are mostly gone though. I remember WMB and ol' Scotty giving daily stock market reports when the market was down. WMB was not here long. When the market starting going up ol' Scotty stopped the market reports. Of course, he is gone now as well. There were others that jumped on that bandwagon, but I remember WMB and ol' Scotty pushing that position very hard.
This post was edited by Morethanafan 15 months ago
The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid rose sharply last week but remained at a level consistent with moderate hiring, while income surged much higher than expected and spending inched higher as well.
While the popular meme is that jobless claims have been indicating an albeit modestly growing economy, it would appear that facts simply do not reflect that reality. Jobless claims surged this week, missing expectations by the most since Sandy as seasonal affectations are in the rear-view mirror. For 13 months, we have meandered around a flat-line initial claims number in the 365k range - and we remain there. What is most troubling about this total catastrophe that occurred in Emergency Unemployment Compensation. After last week's record-breaking plunge of over 350k, this week saw a surge of over 418k added to the EUC rolls - the biggest 2-week jump in two months. The noise in this data remains impressive and yet it is the correlated macro data that appears to be at the heart of so many people's belief in the equity market's strength...
Your own articles states:
"The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week stayed in a range consistent with job growth and incomes rose in December by the most in eight years, mildly positive signs for a still-fragile economy.
"The data suggests points to some underlying momentum in the economy despite a surprise contraction in gross domestic product during the fourth quarter, which largely came from temporary factors.
"Last week, initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 38,000 to 368,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
"The increase follows a week where new claims were at their lowest in five years and still points to an economy where employers are adding jobs, albeit at a lackluster pace.
"It's still consistent with modest employment growth," said Sam Bullard, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.
"Economists polled by Reuters had expected claims to increase to 350,000.
"Claims have been very volatile this month, dropping sharply in the week ended Jan. 12 and maintaining the trend in the following week. That was largely because the model used by the department to smooth out the seasonal variations has been unusually generous during the first three weeks of January.
"The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, gained 250 to 352,000, suggesting a steady improvement in labor market conditions.
"Last week's claims data has no bearing on January's employment report, which is scheduled for release on Friday, as it falls outside the survey period.
"Prices for U.S. 30-year Treasuries pared gains, while S&P 500 futures, which were flat to negative before the data, rose a little.
"Employers are expected to have added 160,000 jobs to their payrolls in January after an increase of 155,000 in December. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 7.8 percent.
"In a separate report, the Commerce Department said American incomes rose 2.6 percent last month. That was the biggest increase since December 2004 and well above analysts' expectations for a 0.8 percent gain.
"However, much of the increases in personal incomes over the last two months have been due to special dividends and accelerated bonuses to beat tax increases that were due to begin this month.
"The big rise in incomes suggests total consumer spending power entered the new year on a stronger footing, even if the gains may not have been distributed evenly throughout the workforce.
"The economy faces the threat of across-the-board spending cuts scheduled for March, as well as the possibility the government might default later this later year and trigger another recession.
"After-tax income climbed 2.7 percent in December, the strongest since May 2008, while consumer spending rose 0.2 percent, just below the pace expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.
"Excluding the one-time factors that boosted incomes in December, after-tax income rose 0.4 percent.
"Planned layoffs at U.S. firms fell in December for the first time in four months, while the overall job-cut total in 2012 was the lowest since 1997, a third report showed on Thursday.
"Employers announced 32,556 job cuts last month, the second lowest monthly total of 2012 and down 43 percent from 57,081 in November, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas."
Despite the desire of conservatives, including you, that the economy does poorly, it is not happening. Republicans in Congress will have to try harder to crash the economy.
Maybe it was an "opps" because we didn't have a 3rd straight week of 5 year lows?
That monthly jobs report coming out tomorrow is either going to take us to an all-time high for the Dow and S&P 500, or it's going to delay us by a month or two.
It is funny. There has been many months of good news in a row. We wish it were better, but we are on the right trajectory. However, any small amount of short term bad news that Low5Point or sec13 can latch on, they do. They seem to hate Obama so much that they crave bad news that they can attribute to him, even if it is not so bad or he has nothing to do with it.
Did someone mention Obama in the thread?
Honestly, anyone can spin any numbers in any direction they want. Lower unemployment claims can be argued for and against the administration. For = fewer people becoming unemployed for that time period than in prior time periods...Against = if unemployment is already high, is it really a good thing that there are still over 300K new people filing for unemployment? People who love to argue politics are going to get nowhere with this heaping praise for things like this...just the same way that the other side gets nowhere heaping blame.
We are walking on thin ice right now. We have just cut all of our funding to send soldiers for professional military education and for other training. No more conferences, no more strategic planning sessions...everything. I can't say it's a good thing. Granted cutting money forces efficiencies, but where do you think all of that money was spent? Money to local community hotels, restuarants, shopping centers, rental car companies, airlines, taxis, et al. I suppose like anything we could argue both sides on this one...we could argue that it's good for the government to not be subsidizing all of these local businesses...but on the other side, it's income for waiters, vendors, etc. I do not see things getting any better anytime soon and there is significant risk if we don't maintain a well trained force to do the mission critical tasks that we do. For example, do we really want an Army Nurse to not get the proper training in order to take care of the Soldiers, families, and retirees in the hospital??? It's a double edged sword.
To be fair, we aren't exactly talking about the sharpest conservative posters we've seen over the years when it comes to those two. In the past there have been strong posters that made the con/rightist argument much better than what we see now on the board. Most of what we get from these guys is based on anecdotal type stories shared within their personal network of conservative friends.
There is a long and consistent history of sec13 and Low5Point trying to knock Obama for the economy. For example, consumer confidence has been down since November. Sec13 tried to implicity tie that to the election of Obama. I pointed out that the November survey was before the election when Romney was doing his best in the polls. Low5Point did not mention Obama in this thread, but he has many times. If you look at his posting history, he wants to knock Obama for anything bad related to the economy.
Clearly, the cost of defense spending hurts the overall economy. The cut in any spending does that. The question is how much and from where should we cut. Conservatives cannot have it both ways. They cannot argue that we need to cut spending, but spending is good when it is for their desired programs. If it were up to me, I'd cut spending on so many overseas bases. That benefits foreign economies, not ours. It would force others to do more to defend themselves rather than relying on us totally.
Maybe it's an oops based on the single most pathetic recovery in the history of the United States with a pathetic leader that today decided to scrap his own Jobs Council despite this horrifically sluggish economy. Maybe it's about you guys on the left being content with utter incompetence and embracing a "new normal" that is utterly pathetic and embarrassing...yet the left celebrates this mediocrity...
CS should thank you for providing anectdotal evidence of his opinion a few posts up.
The Dow just finished it's best January since 1994.
Can we hit that 14,000 mark? Can we set an all-time record?
The best January since, coincidentally, the last time a Democrat was President.
We added 157,000 jobs in January and the Unemployment Rate is 7.9%.
The Dow is currently at 13,956. I don't think we are going to set any records today. :-(
The Russell 2000 is approaching another all time high. I do not think the Dow or S&P 500 will make it there today, but it will be soon.
This post was edited by Morethanafan 14 months ago
We were above 14,000 for a few minutes.
Investors will be looking out for the monthly jobs report and a swathe of data on the health of construction, manufacturing and consumer spending.
This post was edited by cstory80 14 months ago
I run a broker-dealer and watch the Dow far less closely than you do.
I've got a lot of free time these days.
The Russell 2000 made a new high today.
A picture to show where we've been and where we are.
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