Fighton247 Board

Read that last night. The Big XII has a new TV deal as well... Good for them.

I just want to hurry up and get to the four Super-conferences already... Too many conferences, including the Pac are taking their sweet time dragging out expansions.

Is that to say that Larry Scott wasn't at fault nor did he have the final say as it relates to the inclusion of Utah/Colorado and the loss of the 2 Okie schools?

AMEN! At least we partially agree...not that we've ever disagreed/agreed before. lol

It's Notre Dame's fault. When they finally pick a conference, everyone will expand to 16 and it'll be done.

Now why can't the Pac-12 just do that now?

Probably more than it should. While it has some elite academic universities, it also has also-rans.

If we go to 4 super conferences, who gets added to the Pac-16? And does that mean that WSU and Colorado get booted, so we can get 6 better teams? What about the SEC? Do they boot out Vanderbilt and Ole Miss?

I could see an injunction filed by the weaker schools if the top-64 try to form an almost exclusive club....

Because, like every other conference, the PAC 12 wants ND and won't give up pursuing them

FSU and Clemson joining the B12 is a real possibility. Same with Miami and possibly VT.

If this happens, I think it's more likely to happen on a larger scale (four to six additions) than just FSU and Clemson. I'd think two of Miami, VT, Louisville (outside possibility of GA Tech, Pitt or MD) will make up # 3 and 4.

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The key is the difference in $$$ between the ACC tv deal and the B12 tv deal.

FSU and Clemson are in direct competition with better-funded in-state (and regional powerhouse) competitors from the SEC.

It's one thing to be USC or Texas, where you dominate your respective region for recruiting.

It's an entirely different situation to be FSU or Clemson and watch UF, the Cocks, UGA and Bama blowing your potential recruits away with their superior facilities, higher profile games, higher-profile conference, etc, etc.

The math looks like this.

ACC tv deal: $17m/yr all 3 tiers

B12 tv deal: $20m/yr for tier 1 and 2 currently. That jumps to $28m supposedly if they go to 14 teams including FSU and Clemson.

Tier 3 rights would be worth $5-7m/yr for teams like FSU and Clemson.

Even if the escalator clauses in the new B12 deal are fictional, at the bare minimum, adding FSU and Clemson would be worth at least $4m/ school over the existing deal based on the ACC's new deal. But in my mind, if Pitt and Syracuse add $4m/school, FSU, Clemson and 2 others (plus a CCG) adding $8m/ school seems very realistic.

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The other thing to keep in mind is that in the new playoff format, the conferences that put teams in the playoffs will most likely get the lion's share of the money that is generated. If the playoff had been in effect during the BCS' tenure, the ACC would have only had one team during that entire time. That will make a difference of tens of millions of $$$ over the course of time if that pattern continues, and if SOS is a part of the new BCS formula, it's likely the ACC champ will get left out of the playoffs consistently.

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Even without factoring in the differences in playoff money (which will be substantial), just adding up the tv money, and on the extremely conservative end of estimates, even if the B12 deal stayed at $20m/ school, the ACC schools would be looking at a $10m/ year increase to jump to the B12.

On the higher end, and in my view, a more realistic range, they'd be looking at doubling their money from $17M to $34M-$35M/yr.

I don't see how FSU and the others could pass that up. I'll be shocked if FSU doesn't leave, considering their financial problems (Their AD ran a $2.4m loss last year, and they have been using booster money for a while to fund operating expenses- not good.)

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The only question now is does Slive get the SEC schools to open up for FSU as a defensive measure.

They're the best brand on the board, and allowing FSU, Clemson, Miami and VT to go to the B12 would put the B12 on equal footing with the SEC.

Taking FSU out of the equation would be a big-time defensive move that would help them maintain the perception of SEC strength.

It's going to be very interesting to see how this all shakes out. Whatever is going to happen it will go down this summer.

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If you guys want to get into all of the details on this, the mother of all threads on this subject is on the Shag.

http://www.shaggybevo.com/board/showthread.php/108844-Clemson-and-FSU-talk-not-going-away

They've been talking about it since late last year, and the leaks they were posting in March about the B12 and ACC's new tv deals turned out to be completely accurate.

There are a lot of smart people on the shag who like to talk about conference realignment, and some who seem to have good sources. It's great stuff if you're into realignment discussions.

Yes- it's all about the money. The AQ status for a team like Boise was also all about the money.

As for FSU to the SEC-

His best case for would probably be to bring in FSU (best brand, blocks the B12, and SEC would now dominate all Florida media markets) and VT (best new markets (DC, Tidewater, Richmond), and VT is a more football-focused school and VA is a more football-focused state than NC).

But UF would rather recruit against an ACC or B12 FSU than an SEC FSU. And the Cocks don't want to see Clemson anywhere near the SEC for the same reasons. Same thing with UGA and GA Tech.

There has been word for years of a "Gentlemen's Agreement" between UF, UGA and the Cocks to block any expansion that would add a school into one of their states. They'll fight to the end to say no. And all it takes is 3 "No" votes. And IIRC, Vandy has consistently voted against expansion. So that'd be another "No" vote for Slive to overcome.

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I think it would be smart for the SEC to take FSU, but I don't think Slive will be able to get those four Presidents to cave.

So I think he'll focus on new markets- VT and trying to get a NC school, with MD as the backup plan if they can't pry NC State away from UNC.

Add up the Gentlemen's Agreement dynamic to the understandable desire for more money/new markets and the SEC's arrogance and the SEC will probably minimize the threat from FSU in the B12 and focus on VT and a NC school.

Ironically, though, if FSU and Clemson join the B12, and especially if Miami is along for the ride, then I think Slive's chances of landing VT go down substantially

Either way, I think the SEC door will most likely remain closed for the Noles.

Shit just got real.

If this moves to four superconferences, the Pac runs a real risk of being a distant 2nd tier conference. Not taking Oklahoma and okie st was a massive mistake. Now the pac has no schools to add which will "grow the pie"...only schools that will be dilutive.

Pac fans should really hope that it does not move to superconferences as at best the Pac will be a distant #3 and could be #4. And of course USC will just be forced to carry more schools economically.